Fourth Quarter Real Estate Report 2011

Sales were level, but inventory is way down

Madison Park’s real estate market ended last year on a fairly positive note, with eleven houses and condos changing hands during the month of December.  That’s better than the overall 8.5 average sales per month during 2011, but it was not nearly the barn-burning performance that the market generated the previous December.  In that month, 16 sales occurred.  As it happened, however, that high yearend sales volume was not predictive of market performance in 2011.  In each of the first two months of this year there were only four sales.  As we begin a new year, the market will be hard pressed to do much better than it did last year, since the story right now is lack of inventory.

At this time 2011 there were 53 houses and 22 condos on the market in Madison Park, 75 total units.  Right now, the number of for-sale houses has fallen to only 30, and the number of available condos and townhouses is down to 17.  That means there are 47 residences currently available, a 37% decline year over year.  Based on the 2011 absorption rate (101 houses sold), the market now has only a five and a half month supply.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s currently available in Madison Park (Washington Park and Broadmoor included) as provided by Redfin, using information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service:

Houses

Listings:  30
Median List Price:  $1,985,000
Median Sq. Ft.:  4,190
Median Price per Sq. Ft.:  $474
Average Days on Market:  91
Percentage with Price Reductions:  27%
New Listings:  10
Pending Sales:  5

Condos

Listings:  17
Median List Price:  $510,000
Median Sq. Ft.:  1,041
Median Price per Sq. Ft.:  $490
Average Days on Market:  179
Percentage with Price Reductions:  71%
New Listings:  1
Pending Sales:  0

The number of pending sales was down to only five as the year ended, compared to 15 at the beginning of the quarter.  The low number of pendings obviously does not bode well for an immediate uptick in home sales. The real test will come, however, as we move into the spring.  Some houses that were withdrawn from the market could return, and potential new sellers could decide to test the waters, increasing both inventory and market interest.

As has been true since the beginning of the downturn, there was a clear distinction between the median price of homes sold last quarter and the median price of those that remained on the market.  The houses that closed were, on the whole, much smaller and less expensive than those that did not.

This is what the fourth quarter looked like in terms of sales:

Houses

Sales:  22
Median Sale Price:  $1,264,000
Average Sq. Ft.:  3,215
Average Price per Sq. Ft.:  $429
Average Days on Market:  129
Average Discount from List Price:  13.0%

Condos

Sales:  5
Median Sale Price:  $319,000
Average Sq. Ft.:  1,321
Average Price per Sq. Ft.:  $455
Average Days on Market:  169
Average Discount from List Price: 9.7%

The median sales price of the single-family residences that changed hands, $1.2 million, was a full 36% lower than the almost-$2 million median list price of those that remained unsold.  The houses currently on the market are, in terms of the median, 30% larger than those that closed in the fourth quarter.  The largest residence on the market, a mansion in Broadmoor, has over 10,000 sq. ft. of living space, and 70% of the available houses have 3,000 or more sq. ft.

The most expensive house to be sold last quarter was a 3,150 sq. ft. waterfront teardown located in Washington Park (shown below).

Originally listed at $5,180,00, it sold after only 50 days on the market, but at a much-reduced $3,950,000.   The least expensive house was a 770-sq. ft. 1926 cottage located north of Madison Street, which had been on the market for 166 days.  It sold for $440,000, having originally been listed at $525,000.  Nine of the 22 house sales were under $1 million, and only three of the sales were for $3 million or more.

Condo sales, meanwhile, were at half the level of the same quarter the previous year, when ten units sold.  The most expensive condo sold in the fourth quarter was a $1.3 million unit in the Washington Park Tower.  The least expensive was an 825 sq. ft. unit next door in Lakeview Lanai, which sold at $232,500.

Finally, a note on discounts from original list price, which are currently averaging more than 10% for sold homes.  The vast majority of condos on the market have had price reductions since inception, with about a quarter of the houses falling into that group.  A “reduction from list” seems to be the norm, although one homeowner during the fourth quarter actually was able to score 104%-of-list at sale, and two others received 100%, one of whom realized his offer price after his house had been on the market for almost 200 days.  At the other end of the spectrum was the unhappy Broadmoor homeowner who took a 30.7% discount from the original list price, selling a Broadmoor house for $2,070,000 after 498 days on the market.

[Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Real Estate for her help in compiling the sales data. Lower photo courtesy of Redfin.]