Thursday, December 31, 2009
Happy New Decade!
I suspect that many of you, like me, are not entirely sorry to see the decade end. What with wars, recession, financial market downturns and the collapse of real estate values, the last few years have certainly been challenging. Perhaps there's hope, however, that 2010 represents a new beginning.
For me, one major offset to all of the rotten stuff is the great reward I have experienced in writing this bog, now eight months old. Since I began, I have come to know a lot of great people in the neighborhood that I probably would not have met had I not embarked on this project. It has been a lot of fun researching and writing postings, and I have appreciated the feedback (mostly positive) of the many readers who have taken the time to email me, stop me on the street, or add their comments on the blog. Please keep doing so.
I see that many other neighborhood blogs have ended the year by listing their top stories for 2009, so I have decided to fall into line. Here are the most-read Madison Park Blogger postings for the year:
1. MadArt will accost you
2. Preview of a possible 520 solution
3. Girl injured jumping off diving board
4. When it comes to crime, vigilance is better than the other thing
5. Christmas ships to arrive
6. Madison Park loses out on water taxi
7. Why the police won't come running
8. What next for the notorious Deno's
9. MadArt wows
10. June Real Estate Report
In spite of the fact that the series did not make it to the most-read list, the postings that I enjoyed the most were the three entries Defining Madison Park, in which I spent 6,000 words trying to say what, exactly, is meant by the term "Madison Park." We never did decide!
My least favorite posting was the recent announcement of the death of Scott McKee.
I, for one, am ready to move on. I offer to each of you my best wishes for a great end to 2009 and a happy and successful new year ahead.
See you in the new decade!
Bryan Tagas
Madison Park Blogger
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
A sad end to a really bad year
Scott has been a neighborhood mainstay and go-to guy for as long as many Madison Parkers can remember. As the sign in the window says, he will be missed. Our hearts go out to Lola and Scott's sister, Cookie, at this sad time.
UPDATE: The Seattle Times carries Scott's obituary in the December 30 edition, available online here. Scott's family suggests donations in his name to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society (530 Dexter Avenue N., Seattle, 98109).
Indispensable reading
I, myself, have always been a bit of a news junkie. And for many years I subscribed to every major national news magazine that existed, as well as four or five daily newspapers. That's in addition, of course, to watching an hour or two of news each evening. In recent years, changes in the way news is delivered, as well as a decrease in the amount of time I have each day to peruse information, have caused me to focus on fewer sources.
Perhaps you have your own list of indispensable news resources. Mine includes the Washington Post online, Talk of the Nation on NPR, the Economist magazine, and the Sunday edition of The New York Times. Several years ago I added to the list an absolutely essential news magazine called The Week.
I am not into the USA Today, short-attention-span style of news delivery; and on the surface, The Week might appear to be that kind of a periodical. For it's certainly the case that the articles are concise, and there's a lot of information summarized. What's particularly special about The Week, however, is that it draws upon literally hundreds of news sources and presents the material in a particularly interesting and informative fashion.
Virtually every subject is covered each week: politics, people, events, health, science, books, movies, music, art, films, television, food, economics, and travel. For each subject, The Week presents the best reviews of and commentary on what's current. One of my favorite features is "Best Properties on the Market," a two-page spread showing some great residences currently for sale across the country. Each issue includes an in-depth "Briefing" or two on a subject of importance (this week's is on how Bethlehem is a city with a lot of problems). There's a puzzle page, political cartoons, quizes...well you get the idea.
The Week is such a good magazine that the publishers think that just getting it into your hands will make you a lifelong subscriber. For this reason, they make an offer at the end of each year to each current subscriber: give a friend the gift of a one-year subscription to The Week for free!
In view both of my lack of friends and my desire to spread the word about this great magazine (in which I hold no financial interest), I will therefore give a gift of The Week to the first Madison Park Blog reader who emails me his or her name and address.
Here's to a year of great reading!
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Merry! Merry! Merry!
Best wishes to each of you for a delightful holiday season, whatever you may be celebrating. Here are a few random shots of the Madison Park scene as Christmas approaches.
Cheers!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Is it me?...
… or is there something that’s not quite in the holiday spirit about those bright orange sandwich boards that recently cropped up around the neighborhood advertising fish? Sometime last week they suddenly appeared at various street corners along E. Madison and on certain residential side streets, covered with protective plastic and weighted down with concrete blocks. What’s the story?
“I’m just a fisherman trying to make a living,” says the perpetrator. “These signs are tremendously effective for a very low cost.” That’s why they’re there.
There are fewer signs around Madison Park today, however, than there were a week ago. That’s because of complaints. According to the fisherman, who reports that he places these signs in selected neighborhoods all over the City, the only neighborhood that he’s ever received a complaint from is ours. He used to live in Madison Park, he says, and wonders why it is only in our community that people have gotten torqued. We’re just naturally curmudgeonly down here, I guess.
He promises that the signs are temporary and will be removed within the week. If anyone has a complaint about a specific sign, he will get that sign down sooner, he says.
Maybe there’s really nothing wrong (other than the illegality) with putting up a few signs here and there to advertise your wares in the Park. But when it comes to this kind of thing there's clearly more than one school of thought. There are your “live and let-live” Madison Parkers; and then there are your “standards are standards” Madison Parkers. This all reminds me of a story someone told me about a yard sale she had in the neighborhood a few years ago. As the sale was underway, one of her neighbors came by and delivered a gentle admonishment: “Really, my dear, this kind of thing is just not done in this neighborhood.”
Well, of course it is. That and orange fish-for-sale signs.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
November Real Estate Report
At mid-December there were exactly two houses for sale in Madison Park listed at under $1 million. And with the median price of condos having risen to $600,000, affordable is definitely not a good characterization of the current real estate scene here in the Park.
It isn’t that there aren’t still a lot of Madison Park houses that are worth less than $1 million. It’s just that the market has absorbed almost all homes that had been for sale in that price range. Meanwhile, many of the higher-priced residences are still awaiting buyers. “Maybe we’re just out of the relatively inexpensive houses,” says Dave Hale, Managing Broker for Windermere Real Estate in Madison Park. “I think our office’s average listing price is now somewhere in the $2 million range.”
What we had in the early part of 2008 was a market with very little movement. Now what we apparently have is a market where houses at the lower end are being snapped up fairly quickly, but the upper market has yet to fully recover. The average number of days on the market for under $1 million houses during the last three months was 79, while the average for the over $1 million houses was 145, based on listing information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
Nevertheless, sales were surprisingly brisk last month in the upper market. Of seven houses sold during November in Madison Park (Broadmoor and Washington Park included), five changed hands at over $1 million. Here are the statistics (which include two houses not listed by MLS but recorded as sold by the King County Assessor’s Office):
Houses
Average Sales Price: $1,433,000
Median Sales Price: $1,295,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 2,952
Average Cost per Sq. Ft: $485
Average Days on Market for Listed Homes: 267
Average Discount from Original List Price: 16%
(Note that the discount average is skewed by the famous example, which I discussed in an earlier posting, of the Washington Park home which sold for a 52% discount from its initial asking price. Without that outlier, the average discount accepted by house sellers in November was just 7%.)
There were also three condo sales in Madison Park during November:
Condos
Average Sales Price: $593,667
Median Sales Price: $585,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 1,410
Average Cost per Sq. Ft.: $440
Average Days on Market: 223
Average Discount from Original list Price: 6.5%
With ten total residential real estate sales during the month, November continued the trend of increasing market activity that began earlier in the fall. December, though mid-month, also showed surprising strength, with six sales recorded in the first two weeks. In addition, there were nine houses listed as pending sale or contingent. There were, however, only three new house listings and one new condo listing during the holiday season.
The impact of all these sales and the relative lack of new listings means that we enter 2010 with a pretty low level of inventory. Currently, there are only 70 active listings in Madison Park, which is a 10% decline from the October level and a 40% decline from the 116 listings that agents were working with at the beginning of the summer. We end the year with a seven-month absorption rate (10 sales to 70 listings).
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Christmas ships reminder
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The politics of the Park: variations on a liberal theme
But there may be some nuances to the politics of the Park, while not really surprising, that I--for one--was just not aware of. What got me curious was a posting earlier this week on Slog, the blog of Seattle’s alternative newspaper, The Stranger. In it, Dominic Holden reproduces a map by Northwest Passage Consulting showing the voting by precinct for the recent housing levy (Seattle Proposition 1). Holden takes Broadmoor to task for being—well, I’ll let him speak for himself:
“That big red patch on the right of Seattle (under the Montlake cut) surrounded by blue and green areas—that's Broadmoor, a gated neighborhood near Madison Park. Broadmoor also resoundingly supported Republican Susan Hutchison. In fact, Broadmoor, which is packed with multi-million dollar homes but opposes a levy to house poor people, was the only precinct in Seattle to support Hutchison.”
This got me curious to see if there have been other important variations in the recent pattern of voting within the Park. But there don’t appear to be. There are nine and half precincts in Madison Park (one precinct is actually a Madison Valley precinct, SEA 43-2020, which takes in the area surrounding Arboretum Court to the north and south of E. Madison Street). In general, it appears that all of our precincts vote alike, though with differing levels of intensity.
So, while our politics may not be in tune with the rest of the town at all times, we do seem to be generally in harmony with each other (and, for that matter, with Denny-Blaine). Even Broadmoor, whose support for Susan Hutchison as County Executive was a recent outlier, has reversed course when it comes to national elections. The gated enclave threw its support to Bush in 2004 (by 315 votes to Kerry’s 230), but by 2008 the tide had turned. While the eight other exclusively Madison Park precincts gave Obama support ranging from 61% to 75%, Broadmoor also came through with a Democratic vote: Obama with 301 votes (53%) to McCain’s 263. Perhaps signaling the death knell of Republicanism in this old town? Probably not.
Monday, December 14, 2009
When it comes to crime, vigilance is better than the other thing (getting ripped off)
But whatever the underlying cause, it is clear that we have a crime problem in our community that needs to be addressed. I asked two Seattle Police Department (SPD) officers, to give me some tips to help readers of this blog effectively deal with the new higher-crime reality. Here’s the upshot:
In the first nine months of this year there have been 124 burglaries and attempted burglaries on our police beat. Of these, 69 were classified as “unlawful entry” as opposed to “forced entry.” In other words, 56% of all burglaries occurred where people failed to properly secure their property and the perpetrator(s) walked in through an open or unlocked door or entered via an open or unsecured window.
Locking and properly securing entry points is the first step in stopping burglaries, says SPD crime prevention officer Benjamin Kinlow. He points to a recent burglary example from another neighborhood where all the doors and windows of a house were secured on the first floor but there was an open window on the second floor and a ladder lying in the yard. There’s no reason to give burglars an open invitation, Kinlow notes, because they’re likely to take you up on it.
Alarms
If you can afford to have an electronic security system in your house it can be a crime preventer if set up properly. “Having an alarm system with the alarm sounding inside the house is only a benefit for the alarm company,” according to Kinlow. It has minimal utility as a crime preventer, as we previously reported on this blog. “What I personally recommend to citizens is that they put their alarm high on the outside of the house,” says Kinlow, who believes that “99.99%” of criminals will stop and make a quick exit if they believe neighbors are being notified that a crime may be taking place. Most burglaries occur during daytime, he says, so when an alarm sounds, neighbors can look out and possibly see what’s happening.
Kinlow recommends alarm systems that can be deactivated from outside the house or that shut off automatically after several minutes. He also advises that all doors and windows be wired so that a burglar will have to make a noise when entering, either by triggering the alarm or breaking glass. Burglars prefer to make their moves silently, says Kinlow, so forcing them to make a noise not only provides an alert but also can be an actual deterrence. The goal is not to be an easy mark.
Officer Tim Greeley, who works the police beat that includes Madison Park, says it’s very useful for homeowners to have some kind of crime deterrent on their property. He’s big on security systems, even with an in-the-house alarm. “Do you want the perpetrator to leave the house?” he asks, rhetorically. “Have something that will encourage that.”
Greeley believes that surveillance equipment can also be particularly useful in stopping crime. He notes that some systems are now very affordable and can be installed fairly easily. He commented that he bought one for his own home and has experienced no break-ins. Potential burglars, who are often juveniles, are likely to steer clear of a residence that is posted. So if you do install any kind of security system, Greeley says, make sure the fact is known: “This property is under video surveillance.”
Trompe d l'oeil
That’s French for “fool the eye.” When it comes to protecting your property while you’re away from the premises, you not only want to fool the eyes of potential burglars, but perhaps their ears as well. This means making it appear that the house is occupied even if it’s not. Use timers to turn on and off lights, both inside and outside your house, and do the same with a TV or radio so that the house is not quiet. Make sure that newspapers and mail do not accumulate, and keep the grass mowed.
Get the neighbors involved
Both Greeley and Kinlow stress that having neighbors participate in helping secure your property is important. Keep them informed of when you will be gone and ask for their assistance in watching the premises and reporting suspicious activities. Greely suggests that if you don’t have an extra car of your own to leave behind while you’re away, request that a neighbor parks their car in your driveway or in front of your house so it looks like someone is home.
Kinlow adds that if you’re going to be away from the house for an extended period you can make a “Request to Watch” to the Seattle Police, which will result in additional police patrols by your house while you are gone. The non-emergency number to be used for such requests is 206-625-5011.
Be vigilant
The bottom line, both officers agree, is for property owners not to be complacent about the possibility of becoming crime victims. “It can happen to anyone,” says Greeley. “The important thing” adds Kinlow, “is to make it difficult.” The more you do to protect your property, the harder you make it for the potential burglar, the less likely you are to be victimized. “Recognize that we live in a society and in a city where crime can occur,” says Greeley. “That fact has to be on our radar—or we’re vulnerable.”
Friday, December 11, 2009
‘Bad Actor’ returns
According to Scott Harris, who supervises the DOC’s Sexual Assault Unit for King County, Sheenan will be under DOC supervision through 9/7/2013, assuming that he does not commit any other parole violations during the period. Additional violations would result in lengthened supervision.
Right now, Harris says, Sheehan is required to report in to his community corrections officer (CCO) on a daily basis, is not allowed to use drugs or alcohol, and may not leave King County without permission. In addition to being subject to random drug testing, Sheehan will be given polygraph tests on a regular basis (at least every three months), according to Harris. Although sexual-offender parolees can be ordered into sexual deviancy treatment programs, it is not known whether Sheehan has had this requirement imposed upon him.
Based on his history of recidivism, it appears that he certainly could use some form of treatment. He clearly fits the classic definition of a “bad actor.” Since his last incarceration, he has apparently been reclassified from a “Level II” risk to a “Level III.” (King County shows him as a “Level II” on its website, but the DOC assures me that he is a “Level III” for purposes of their supervision.)
Here’s what the Washington State Sexual Offender Information Center says about those listed as a “Level III” risk: “These offenders pose a potential high risk to the community and are a threat to re-offend if provided the opportunity. Most have prior sex crime convictions as well as other criminal convictions. Their lifestyles and choices place them in this classification. Some have predatory characteristics and may seek out victims. They may have refused or failed to complete approved treatment programs.”
So that’s part of the story. Sheehan is out and living not that far away. What is perhaps more surprising, however, is the fact that he is living one block from Nova High School, three blocks from Garfield High School, and four blocks from a private school.
And he’s not alone. Several other registered sex offenders live in the same neighborhood. Fortunately, there are none living within the confines of Madison Park, although there are 16 living within two miles of us.
There are no known restrictions on Sheehan’s movements so long as he doesn’t leave the county. He has been known in the past to allegedly engage in peeping-tom activities here, to stalk victims, and to illegally enter premises for sexual purposes. The picture above is a recent one released by the King County Sheriff’s office. So take note.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Bert’s does its bit for a greener holiday season
Although Bert’s has been recycling its own cooking oil and animal-fat waste for many years, the store this month decided to go a step further in its support of a “sustainable environment” in Madison Park. And if you’ve wandered around the back of the store recently, you may have seen the evidence of this new effort: a big green oil drum next to the loading dock labeled “General Biodiesel – Waste Cooking Oil Only – No Motor Oil.”
General Biodiesel is a three-year-old biodiesel fuel manufacturer, based here in
The oil drum is expected to be in place at Bert's through early January.
[Bert’s is located at 1801 41st Avenue E. Photo of oil drum by Hoby Douglass.]
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Madison Park Blogger passes a milestone
When I began this blog seven and a half months ago, I planned to be a blogger in Madison Park, writing about whatever I decided to write about. (My first post on this blog, in fact, was about sluicing!)
But I quickly became a blogger about Madison Park, and I moved away from doing the kinds of postings I might have done if this wasn’t such a “serious endeavor” (and if my audience wasn’t made up of a lot of people I’d prefer not to offend). One of the ideas I gave up on was a regular posting called “Culled from the Internet.” My plan was to scour the web for interesting images and post them occasionally, confronting my readers with my humor and sense of the absurd. Of course that kind of thing would be totally inappropriate for a blog of this sort.
At exactly 4:41 this morning, Madison Park Blogger received its 10,000th visit since inception. Someone in Tokyo, Japan used the Google image-search function to find this site and then spent nine minutes and 29 seconds looking at our September postings. Now 10,000 visits might not be a big deal for a major, established neighborhood blog like Ballard’s, but I’m viewing it as a vote of confidence. And I’ll take my readers from wherever I can get them (somebody in Belgium reads this site every week!). So thanks, reader in Japan!
And thanks also to my Madison Park fans for your support and encouragement. Please keep those comments and story ideas coming. Onward and upward!
Monday, December 7, 2009
Crime is on the rise: what are we going to do about it?
So we’ve got a problem. But what’s to be done?
At the request of Madison Park Community Council member Alice Lanczos, the Seattle Police’s crime prevention coordinator for our area, Benjamin Kinlow, spoke at the Council’s regular meeting last month. What he told those assembled is that the best way to prevent crime is for the community to become vigilant and organized. One of the most important things, he said, is for people to have timely information on what’s happening in their area. He reported that he tries to alert neighbors to burglaries by leafleting homes with a “Burglary Alert” when a break-in has occurred near their house:
So while we do have some Seattle Police assistance with our crime prevention efforts, Madison Park is somewhat on its own when it comes to stopping the escalation in crime. As noted in a previous posting, Madison Park has not had enough crime to warrant regular patrols. This may be changing.
Block Watches
Kinlow recommends block watches as one of the best ways to tackle the problem. He noted, for example, that View Ridge has a very sophisticated program where there’s a volunteer “trustee” for each two blocks of the community. This volunteer receives reports from anyone in the two-block coverage area who experiences a crime, and this information is then communicated to all of the other neighbors in the coverage area. It is also passed on to the other “trustees” throughout the neighborhood, who can then inform their own neighbors.
There are some informal block watches in Madison Park (the one in my area of the Park includes neighbors in a three or four block area). But when the subject came up at a Council meeting last summer, we learned that there has been no effort to date to formally coordinate a network of block watchers or to set up block watches in areas where they don’t already exist. There was actually resistance by some to a formalized block watch, although everyone agreed that the sharing of information about crime was needed.
Websites
Another way to share crime reports is through a community website or blog. Kinlow points to the West Seattle Blog’s “Crime Watch” page as a template for this kind of effort. Unfortunately, Madison Park does not currently have an established website or blog with sufficient coverage to make this idea workable. While the West Seattle Blog has been around for years and has readership in the thousands, this blog is new and is unknown to most members of the Madison Park community. At this point Madison Park Blogger can function as a resource, but it is clearly inadequate to the purpose of notifying the community about crime in the area. Any new website established to communicate this information would have the same limitations as this site. The principal problem is figuring out how to get people to tune in.
I am open to helping with a block watch/crime communication program if there are others who are interested in starting such a movement. I invite your suggestions and comments (just click on the “Comments” tag at the end of this posting, or email me at the address in the right-hand column).
Later this week, in Part II of this report, we will take a look at some practical suggestions by the Seattle Police for stopping burglars before they get the chance to rip you off. Be informed.
[Photo by foxymcslick on Flickr.]
Friday, December 4, 2009
Is stalker behind bars or on the streets?
The MPT went to press before Sheehan's expected release date of November 30, so I thought I'd check up and find out if the guy is on the streets or not. According to the paper, Sheehan was planning to live on the 800 block of 23rd Avenue (near Garfield Playfield), which by my calculations is only a bit more than two miles from here. Close enough to walk.
So is he out? Well, if they know, no one at the State Department of Corrections was willing to say when I called over the last two days. However, the DOC's website, which supposedly lists all "incarcerated offenders" in the State, does not have Sheehan in its database. A national sex-offender database shows Sheehan's current address as Kitsap County prision, information which is clearly out of date. His last known address, apparently, is actually King County Jail.
Sheehan's re-arrest occurred only one week after he was let out of jail the last time! And although he was given a 60-day sentence for this parole violation, says the MPT, he was expected to get off early for "good behavior" while back in the slammer. Not the kind of guy who can be expected to exercise the same "good behavior" once out on the streets, apparently. So take note.
I am told that I will be getting confirmation of Sheehan's whereabouts on Monday, directly from the Community Corrections Supervisor for King County. When that happens, I'll report it here.
[Photo courtesy of the Kitsap County Sheriff]
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Arboretum holiday event is back this week!
My neighbors, Jenefer and Dave Hutchins, remind me that this is a particularly approrpiate time of year to explore the Arboretum's colorful Winter Garden--and to prove their point they provided me with these lovely pictures.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Lake Washington: still toxic after all these years?
Sounds bad, but what’s going on here? I thought that Lake Washington had been cleaned up long ago. Is the Lake getting cleaner, as I had previously supposed, or is the water quality here actually deteriorating?
I decided to find out, so I called the number helpfully listed at the bottom of the advisory. I was connected with Dave McBride, Lead Toxicologist with the DOH’s fish program, who assured me that things are not as bad as they may seem from a cursory review of the new advisory. First of all, he said, this is not really new information, even though there had previously been no posting on the subject. What happened, he said, is that the department recently received funding for some new signs. In fact, he said, there already had been an interim advisory concerning Lake Washington fish. The new signs coincide with the decision to make the advisory a permanent one.
So why are these fish so bad for our health? PCBs and mercury are the primary contaminants, according to McBride. PCBs have been banned for 30 years or so, but they still exist in plentiful supply in the environment, he told me. “There’s not really any new input (of PCBs),” he noted, “so much as there’s a recycling of existing PCBs within the system.” What this means for big, fatty, long-lived bottom fish such as carp, he said, is that they have time to build up an unhealthful supply of these chemicals and mercury, which occurs both naturally in the environment and as a result of human intervention. Chemicals continue to be introduced into Lake Washington through such means as the leaching of landfills and the draining of old transformers into the Lake, McBride told me. Fossil fuels also cause pollution, he noted; and any lake located in an urban environment, such as ours, will never be pristine.
There really aren’t all that many carp in Lake Washington in the first place (and perhaps no northern pikeminnow), according to McBride. There are cutthroat trout in the Lake, but the “Good to Eat” lake fish are much more plentiful, fortunately. The yellow perch is good for a meal a week, but the sockeye, rainbow trout (shown above), and pumpkin seed are all good for two to three meals a week. So go ahead, knock yourself out--assuming you can catch any of them!
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Thieves in the night: hardly a random act
Unfortunately, this kind of criminal activity is becoming all too common in the neighborhood lately, at least based on anecdotal evidence. At a recent meeting of the Madison Park Community Council, more than one third of the audience raised their hands when asked whether they had been recent victims of either a car or house burglary. One of my neighbors actually reported that the front seats had been stolen out of his parked car during the summer.
I will be doing a posting next week concerning the East Precinct's Crime Prevention efforts. At least for residential areas, a formalized block watch program might be one way to help fight crime in the 'hood. More to follow...
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
It's official: no Water Taxis for Lake Washington
Politics is at the heart of the decision, as the idea of the County's expanding ferry service while simultaneously limiting Metro bus service did not sit well with a lot of people. The subject came up during the recent King County Executive election campaign; and the County Council members, who also constitute the Ferry District Board, were certainly aware of the potential negative fallout of going forward with ferry expansion plans.
The method used by the Board to stop expansion of the ferry routes was to cut the Ferry District levy for 2010, thereby choking off tax revenues to the Ferry District that would have funded the operation. The demonstration routes were expected to cost $1.2 million in 2010 and another 1.36 million in 2011. The original property-tax rate, set in 2007, was 5.5 cents per $1,000 of assessed valuation for King County properties. This will be reduced to .3 cents for 2010, allowing the King County Council to increase the property tax by a proportional amount to fund Metro bus services. Thus, property owners will pay the same total levy, but the tax support for transportation will be directed to buses rather than ferries.
[Photo courtesy of the King County Ferry District.]
Saturday, November 21, 2009
October Real Estate Report
Sellers ‘capitulate’ to the market
During my ramblings around Madison Park last month I happened to cross paths with a well-known local real estate agent who was standing in front of a house—one of his listings—where a “sold” sign had recently been posted. He was watching the movers cart out the last vestiges of the “staged” furniture that had been on display in the home during its many months on the market. My congratulations on the sale were met with a weary sigh. “Well,” the agent said, “the seller lost a bundle and I lost a bundle, but at least we got the thing sold!” Then he added wryly, “It sure was a heck of a deal for the buyer, though.”
The seller had been “testing” the market over a long period by holding out for a higher price. But he ultimately succumbed to market realities, accepting a much reduced sale price. In a phrase borrowed from the stock market, he finally reached his personal capitulation point. And he was not alone. With only one notable exception, every Madison Park seller in October accepted a discount from their originally-hoped-for selling price, 12.5% on average. Even so, it appears that the market is achieving equilibrium and maybe even a bit of momentum.
Eight home sales were recorded in the Park during October, which was down from September’s volume of 11 sales but is level with the average eight-sales-per month pace of the market during the third quarter. There were also a large number of new pendings added during October and the first two weeks of November, bringing the total pendings at mid-month to 23, including three homes sold on a “contingent” basis. This is a huge increase from the 12 pendings outstanding a month earlier.
All but one of the six houses sold during October were in the $1 million or more price range, with a median sale price of $1,272,500 for all the houses. Their median square footage was 3,497, reflecting a median price per square foot of $454. The two condos (each boasting less than 600 sq. ft.) changed hands at about $300,000 each, for a median price per square foot of $524. While the houses sold in only 90 days on average, the condos took over twice as long to sell: 188 days each.
This combination of sales activity and the fact that there were only ten new homes listed for sale during the last month has caused inventory levels to continue their steady decline. The total number of homes on the market in Madison Park is now only 78, which compares favorably to the 116 active listings we had at the beginning of the summer (for those who are number oriented, that’s a 33% decline). Where there was a 17-month absorption rate (total listings divided by the month’s sales) in May, now there’s only 9.75 months of inventory, a pretty substantial improvement.
In addition to the two condos sold in October, there are nine additional condos that are now listed as pending, including two of the three units in this 2007 building at 1611 43rd Avenue E. These condos have been on the market for almost 700 days, according to Redfin; and it's expected that the developer will be taking a bath on the sale of the units, so to speak:
Houses
Listings: 53
Median List Price: $1,995,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 4,372
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $456
Average Days on Market: 129
Proportion with Price Reductions: 45%
Condos & Townhouses
Listings: 25
Median List Price: $599,950
Median Sq. Ft.: 1,125
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $533
Average Days on Market: 185
Proportion with Price Reductions: 56%
Interestingly, the proportion of for-sale properties that have been reduced in price is trending upwards, perhaps another sign of the capitulation process at work. As any viewer of cable TV’s Million Dollar Listing (Bravo channel, Mondays at 10:00) will tell you, sellers in even pricier neighborhoods than ours can be pretty unsophisticated about the market and resistant to facing the reality of declining real estate values. Many of them, of course, don’t have to sell and simply withdraw their properties or stick to their over-market price while awaiting a recovery that may or may not occur.
If you don’t have to sell, of course, there are more options available than for those who cannot afford to hold. But clearly it is possible with the right property to properly gauge the market and price accordingly. One Madison Park home, for example, was sold in October after only 9 days on the market—and at a 3% premium to the list price. It could be a fluke, or it might just be a good example of “pricing to the market.”
On the other hand, there is the example of that Washington Park house I mentioned in an earlier posting, the one whose owners had been “chasing the market down.” After almost 500 days on the market, the nicely located Hillside Drive home was finally sold early this month. Though the sale price of $1,350,000 was a 52% reduction from the initial offering price of $2,795,000, this was still a 35% increase in value from what the owners reportedly paid for the property in 1999. Not quite a hard-luck story, but a come down and a capitulation to the market nonetheless.
[Upper photo: a 2007 contemporary home at 1840 41st Avenue E., listed by Kathryn Hinds of Windermere at $1,795,000 (my favorite for-sale property in Madison Park). Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Realty for her help in providing some of the market data utilized in this report.]
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Last chance to order Greek Christmas delicacies
Orders can be picked up at the Church December 4-6.The Church will be holding its annual Holiday Fest dinner on December 5, and everyone is invited. Information is available here.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
SR-520: Second Montlake Bridge Endorsed
Although the vote was 10-2 in favor of the plan, known as "Option A," it was two Seattle representatives on the committee, including our own Rep. Jamie Pederson, who were opposed, according to the Seattle Times.
The replacement of the Evergreen Point floating bridge was discussed at the most recent meeting of the Madison Park Community Council, held earlier this week. As a result of that discussion I have to retract my earlier comments about the probable lack of impact on Madison Park of the new bridge. Those who have been paying closer attention to the project than I tell me that the design of the new, much taller bridge will almost certainly create what one critic called "an Alaksan Way Viaduct" profile all the way across the Lake. Additionally, a proposed noise-deadening wall on part of the north side of the bridge (to protect the sensibilities of Laurelhurst residents, apparently) will intensify the noise levels in Madison Park, in the opinion of some.
So the plan is much more controversial in Madison Park than I had believed. Unfortunately (and probably purposefully) there are no artist's conceptions on the State Department of Transportation's website showing what the new bridge will look like in profile.
The SR-520 legislative workgroup is sponsoring a townhall meeting next week: 6 pm on November 24 at the Center for Urban Horticulture (3501 NE 41st Street). The DOT website claims that the meeting agenda and related materials are available here, but as of this morning no such information had been posted to the site. I guess we're supposed to check back later.
[Graphics courtesy of the State Department of Transportation.]
UPDATE: KPLU today posted a report on its website stating that there is a coalition of Montlake and Madison Park neighbors who intend to fight the State's "Option A" plan for SR-520 expansion, but quotes no one other than a resident of Montlake. I am unaware of a concerted effort of Madison Park residents to oppose the plan.