Broadmoor eagles featured in Seattle Times story

For those who don't read the paper, we note that today's edition of The Seattle Times features a nicely written front-page story by Erik Lacitis about Montlake bird photographer Larry Hubbell.  Hubbell, as readers of this blog know, has been keeping tabs on the Broadmoor eagles as part of his efforts to chronicle  birdlife on Union Bay. His blog, Union Bay Watch, has a lot of new pictures of the Broadmoor eagle pair, "Eva and Albert," as well as their new eaglet born last month.  We admit that though we often read Hubbell's blog, we happened to miss this news.

The Times, by the way, printed a big photo of Hubbell standing with his equipment on the pier at the 37th Avenue E. road end, the Beaver Lodge Sanctuary. This is a good spot to observe nature and forget that you are in the midst of a major urban center (assuming you look to the west and screen out the traffic noise from SR 520).

[Eagle photo by and used with the permission of Larry Hubbell.]

April Real Estate Report

Depending on which press report you may have read today, you could either believe that Seattle’s real estate market is in recovery or continuing on a downhill path. The Seattle Times headline read “Home Prices in Seattle Inch Up in March,” which was true. But there was also this from the Wall Street Journal: “Housing Prices Remain Weak,” along with a chart showing Seattle prices down 3.6% for March. Which was also true.

Confused? Well both reports were from the Case-Shiller index for Seattle. One statistic was a comparison of house-sale prices from February to March 2010, which showed a small, .1% increase. The other statistic showing a decline of 3.6% was a year-over year number, March 2009 to March 2010. So, while Seattle’s home prices have not recovered even to last year’s levels, it looks like we may be witnessing the bottom of the trough. Here’s what the month-to-month price-change numbers looked like for the first three months of the year (the latest for which statistics are available):

It’s looking like a trend in the right direction.

Seattle sits somewhere in the middle of the top 20 largest American cities in terms of the housing “recovery” during the last 12 months. At the top is San Francisco, with a 16.2% increase year-over-year, and at the bottom is Las Vegas, with a 12.0% decline. The nation as a whole is up 2%, according to Case-Shiller.

Local real estate agents I’ve spoken to in the last couple of months are enthusiastic about the increased interest in the Seattle market. This anecdotal evidence is supported by statistics. For our area of the City, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) recently reported a 5.4% increase in listings, a 32.8% increase in pending sales, and a 9.33% increase in median home prices between April 2009 and April 2010 (single-family residences and condos combined). Our MLS coverage area includes Capitol Hill, Madison Park, Montlake, Madrona, Leschi, and parts of the Central District.

For Madison Park, the April numbers were consistent with the upward trend for the year: 10 total residential sales versus an average of seven sales per month in the first quarter of 2010. Even so, this is hardly a big comeback since the fourth quarter of 2009 averaged 10 sales per month.

Here’s a breakout of the sales activity for April:

Houses

Sales: 7
Median Sale Price: $1,266,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 2,805
Average Price per Sq. Ft.: $476
Average Days on Market: 61
Average Discount from List Price: 4.9%

Condos

Sales: 3
Median Sale Price: $410,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 1,062
Average Price per Sq. Ft.: $431
Average Days on Market: 176
Average Discount from List Price: 7.4%

National real estate reports have recently focused on an increase in inventory as many so-called “side-line sellers” have decided to enter the market in the belief that prices are recovering and potential buyers now have access to financing. Indeed interest rates are at historic lows (qualified buyers can now obtain a 30-year mortgage at 4.65%), and a fair amount of new inventory did enter our local market (24 homes in the last month, through a few of these were re-listings at a lower price point).

The median price of the 18 new single-family house listings in April was $1,800,000, and only one of these houses was listed at under $1 million. 14 of the 18 new listings were located in Broadmoor or Washington Park.

Although the average number of days on the market for sold properties has declined from the high levels of last year, there are still 14 houses and five condos currently available that have been for sale at least 200 days. At the other end of the spectrum, however, were the two houses that sold last month after having been on the market for only five days.

Here’s what the Madison Park market looks like right now (Washington Park and Broadmoor included), as reported by Redfin:

Houses

Listings: 65
Median List Price: $1,985,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 3,912
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $507
Average Days on Market: 115
Percentage with Price Reductions: 29%
Pending Sales: 10
New Listings During the Month: 18

Condos

Listings: 27
Median List Price: $549,950
Median Sq. Ft.: 1,125
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $489
Average Days on Market: 186
Percentage with Price Reductions: 41%
Pending Sales: 6
New Listings During the Month: 6
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While it represents only about 18% of the total residences in Madison Park, Broadmoor has 21 of the 65 houses currently on the market in the Park (32% of the total). Only 18 houses are available in the Park outside of Broadmoor and Washington Park combined.

Next month: A look a declining real estate values in Madison Park, as measured by Zillow.

[Shown in photo above: a 1939 “traditional” 5,200 sq. ft. home located at 1620 Broadmoor Drive E., on the eastern fairway of the golf course. Listed at $2,795,000, the home has four bedrooms and 3.75 baths. It was a new listing this month.]

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Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Real Estate for her help in compiling the sales data.

Dredging ends, beavers return

I haven’t seen the furry critters myself, but I have it upon reliable eye-witness authority that the beavers are now back frolicking in the waters off the northern coast of Madison Park. This, in spite of the two weeks of dredging in the area recently undertaken by Broadmoor’s contractor. The dredging company pulled out last week, meaning (I guess) that water from the Lake is now free to gush unhindered into the irrigation pipes of the golf course.
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I don’t get up early enough, unfortunately, to get a shot of swimming beavers (who, I am told, are most likely to be seen after sunrise); but Canterbury resident Gene Brandzel provided this fuzzy shot last week to prove his point either that the Loch Ness monster lives or that the beavers are really back in Canterbury (Gene admits that the lighting was bad). He reports that there were four adult beavers on show at 5:30 that particular morning, which just happened to be a couple of days before the dredging equipment was evacuated. “Some of the beavers slapped their tails right next to the dredge to say goodbye,” Brandzel said. “It was quite touching.”

Broadmoor isn’t the only community, by the way, to benefit from the dredging effort. As a condition of one of the permits that Broadmoor needed to obtain for the project, the Washington State Department of Fish & Wildlife required that the pier at the end of 37th Avenue E., near the dredging site, be resurfaced. The old surface of the pier (aka “dock”) was wooden, allowing little light to penetrate into waters underneath. The new pier has slots that allow the light to shine through. This, in theory, should be good for the aquatic and plant life of the bay.

It's nice to know that the fears of many of us that the beavers might be disturbed as a result of the dredging have apparently proved overblown. The waters look serene, the beaver lodge remains intact, and we presumably can soon look forward to seeing the results of another successful breading season. If anyone gets a good shot of the new brood, please share with us!

[Middle photo: the wooden housing for the Broadmoor irrigation system intake pipe, around which the dredging occurred.]

Broadmoor begins dredging

With all required permits in place, Broadmoor’s contractor began pulling the sludge from Union Bay yesterday around the intake pipe for the golf course’s watering system. As we’ve reported previously, Broadmoor wants green grass in the summer, and that apparently requires more water than the intake pipe could accommodate. Deepening the channel in the area surrounding the intake pipe will supposedly solve the problem for the immediate future.

Not everyone is happy about the situation, however. Canterbury resident Gene Brandzel led the effort to keep the City from approving Broadmoor’s permit request as originally submitted. His concern, and that of other wildlife enthusiasts, was that a nearby beaver lodge would be disrupted during the dredging and the beavers might be negatively impacted, perhaps even abandoning their home. In the end, the City decided that the Madison Park beavers were not in jeopardy.

Seattle’s Department of Planning & Development Director, Diane Sugimura, sent Brandzel an email today in which she stated “the beaver are not an endangered species, and their habitat is not protected.” She commented that based on discussions with the State’s Department of Fish & Wildlife, she believes the beavers will probably not leave the area, as they are used to an urban environment with a lot of noise and activity. As evidence she cited the lodge’s proximity to SR-520. In the end, she said, she was sorry that her decision to grant the permit was not what Brandzel wanted, but “I do feel that our decision meets our regulatory authority.”

This is not quite a “Beavers be Damned” story, however, since the opposition by Brandzel and others to Broadmoor’s original plans did result, as Sugimura noted in her email, in a significantly reduced area and depth of dredging. Nevertheless, as can be seen in the photo below, the boom area is pretty close to the beaver damn, which is visible directly in front the dock at the 37th Avenue E. road end.

Brandzel, meanwhile, is unhappy not only with the outcome but with the process as well. “These are not ordinary beavers” he wrote in response to Sigimura, “and treating them as if they are is closing one’s eyes to the uniqueness of having these creatures as part of an urban community.” Brandzel is calling for volunteers to monitor the dredging activity to be sure that it complies with the permit. If you’re interested in helping, you can contact him at genebb@gmail.com or (206) 940-4489.

Dredging is expected to continue for two to three weeks.

Beavers beware! Broadmoor to dredge

Though they’ve been given a couple-week reprieve so they can finish out their breeding season, the Madison Park beavers may soon be in for a rude awakening. Broadmoor’s plans to dredge around the golf club’s water intake pipe (shown above) have been approved by the City with the only restriction being that the project may not begin before April Fool’s Day. As reported previously on this blog, Broadmoor has a longstanding right to take water from Union Bay. The golf course utilizes pumped water from this source to help keep the grass green during the summer. The intake pipe for the irrigation system is located just off the pier at the 37th Avenue E. road end, within 40 feet or so of a beaver lodge which appears to be inhabited. As many neighbors have reported, beavers are very active in the vicinity.

To be fair, Broadmoor’s dredging plans have been scaled back significantly from what was originally proposed. The golf course had asked to be allowed to do a deep dredge within a twenty-foot radius around the intake site. After public complaints about the potential disruption to the natural habitat, Broadmoor agreed to limit the project's scope. Under the revised plan dredging will occur only in the area up to 17 feet to the west of the intake, up to five feet to the south, and up to six feet to the east. The depth of the dredging will be limited to six feet. There will be no dredging to the north of the intake so as to minimize the impact on the beaver population.

As noted in the City’s “analysis and decision” concerning Broadmoor’s dredging proposal, beavers are a protected wildlife species under Washington State law. However, “restrictions on development activity within the vicinity of a beaver lodge are not regulated,” according to the Seattle Department of Planning & Development’s analysis. Under terms of the State Environmental Protection Act (SEPA), the City issued a “Determination of Non-Significance,” thereby allowing work to go ahead. Broadmoor’s contactor must still obtain several other permits, including one from the State's Department of Fish & Wildlife, before dredging can commence. I was unable to get a return call today from the contractor to confirm whether all of these permits are now in place.

Residents of the area, including the beavers and herons, can expect to endure two to three weeks of construction activity once the project gets underway. A barge-based crane will utilize a clam-shell dredge to collect dredge spoils from around the intake site. The spoils will then be dumped onto a shuttle barge which will convey the residue to a storage barge located in the Lake, about a third of a mile to the east. The dredge spoils will ultimately be trucked to a new home somewhere in Maltby, Washington.

Gene Brandzel, one of the neighborhood activists who oppose Broadmoor’s dredging plans, is unhappy with the City’s decision. “After declaring the beaver a protected animal under Washington State law, today's decision has no scientific information that confirms that the revised dredging plan protects the beaver,” Brandzel told me. He notes that while the City said it would consult with “experts” concerning the potential impact on the beavers, there is no indication in the approval who was contacted and what those experts may have said. He questions whether the Washington State Department of Fish & Wildlife has decided the plan protects the beavers. Unless that is the case, he said, “What alternative is left other than to appeal the City’s ruling? Someone has to step up for the beavers.”

January Real Estate Report

New evidence of a real estate market turnaround?

The big news in the local real estate market last month was the report by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) that the median price of Seattle homes sold in January was actually higher than in the same month a year earlier. For the city as a whole, this represented a 2.63% increase over the past year (houses and combos combined). It is the first time in almost two years that there has been a year-over-year increase in Seattle’s residential property values. The rest of King County did not fare as well, however, with home values continuing their downward trend.

But how did prices hold up in our neighborhood? Madison Park itself is a market that’s a bit too small for year-to-year median price comparisons to be meaningful (seven total home sales in January 2009 and only five this year). But for our general area of the City (MLS Area 390, which also includes Capitol Hill, Montlake, Madison Valley, Madrona, and Leschi), the news was pretty good. There was a modest 2.1% increase in value between January last year and this. This improvement, however, perhaps has more to do with a year over year change in the mix of sales (houses versus condos) than a real move up in home values.

Nevertheless, it’s a good start to 2010. Whether this welcome news means we’re on an upward trajectory will only become evident when we’ve got a few more months of sales data in hand. It’s just possible, however, that for our area of Seattle—like for the rest of the City—the downward slope of real estate values has been arrested. At minimum, the rate of decline seems to have abated.

In Madison Park January was actually a pretty slow month. Only three houses and two condos changed hands, a level of sales activity which was well below the nine-sales-per-month average of the last quarter of 2009. The median price of houses sold was a relatively high $1,275,000, and all of these properties were priced in excess of $1 million. The average sale price for the condos was $973,000. On average, sellers in January accepted a 9.4% discount from their original listing prices.

The big news in January was not the number of sales but rather the 15 homes (13 houses and two condos) that were listed as pending sale. Since 11 of the pending houses are priced at over $1 million, this may add to the sense that there is movement in the upper market. Broadmoor has more than a third of the pending houses, which was certainly not typical of the sales pattern in that area of the Park in 2009. There were 18 new listings in Madison Park during the month, which was great news for the real estate professionals. Inventory rose from 64 listings to 70.

While the agents I’ve spoken to are hardly ready to declare victory (even in private), the apparent increase in upper-market activity is cause for some cheer. Longtime and well-known Madison Park agent Val Ellis of Coldwell Banker Bain, for one, says she’s “thrilled” at the uptick of buyer interest in the over $1 million market. “It’s been a dry spell for a couple years,” she commented.

Dave Hale, Managing Broker for Windermere Real Estate’s Madison Park office, is cautious but notes that “we’re feeling fortunate.” He says “it’s still too early to tell if the market has turned,” but he reports that his agents are seeing an increase in demand. He wonders if this might cause some homeowners to re-list homes that they had taken off the market. “Open-house traffic has been excellent,” he says. “Hopefully this will result in some written contracts.”

Here’s an overview of the Madison Park market (including Washington Park and Broadmoor) as of mid-February (market data supplied by Redfin):

Houses

Listings: 50
Median List Price: $1,950,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 4,430
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $440
Average Days on Market: 129
Percentage with Price Reductions: 28%

Condos

Listings: 19
Median List Price: $495,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 1,045
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $474
Average Days on Market: 210
Percentage with Price Reductions: 42%

There is also one multi-family property on the market, a two-unit building listed at $849,000. Although there are many relatively new properties listed, there are three houses and three condos currently for sale that have been on the market for more than a year. Several other properties are approaching that milestone. The most expensive house currently available is this impressive Washington Park mansion originally built in 1923 but extensively reworked by architect Stuart Silk, with remodeling completed in 2005. Listed at $6,850,000, the house had been marketed last year at a higher price but was withdrawn and recently relisted.

In line with current market trends, only 5 houses, 10% of the total available, are listed at under $1 million. Twenty-two houses, meanwhile, are listed at over $2 million, representing 44% of the total inventory.

A retrospective on 2009

With the rather lackluster decade-ending year now behind us, I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at how the market fared in 2009 relative to previous years. While sellers, buyers, and real estate agents bemoaned the market last year, statistics show that 2009 was actually not that different from 2008. Though annual house sales still have not returned to their 2007 levels, condo sales seem to have rebounded.

Interestingly, while the median price of Madison Park houses sold in 2009 was down 14% from 2007 levels, the median price of Madison Park condos was actually up 8% from 2007.

The price per square foot for condos, however, was down substantially from 2007 levels ($492 in 2009 versus $562 in 2007). House prices per square foot, on average, fell a dramatic 17% from their 2008 levels (from $535 top $444).

As noted, Madison Park is a very small real estate market and its metrics are therefore significantly impacted by the mix of property sales that occur in a given year. Some of our market statistics, however, are absolutely meaningful. One of the most noteworthy trend lines (and one of the most baneful from the point of view of property sellers) is the lengthening of the sales process that has taken place in Madison Park over the past three years:

Perhaps even more noteworthy (and baneful) is the trend line for discounts that sellers have had to accept from their list prices:

All in all, 2008 and 2009 were a couple of years that many sellers and agents would just as soon forget.

[Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Real Estate for her help in providing some of the market data utilized in this report. Top photo: This 3,600 sq. ft. 1924 home located at 1527 39th Avenue E. was renovated in 2005. It is a new listing this month by Janet Schanno and Reilly Schanno of Windermere Real Estate, priced at $1,300,000. Lower photo courtesy of Bob Bennion, Winderemere Real Estate. Map of MLS Area 390 is from SeattleBubble.com.]

The latest on our neighborhood beavers

Well they’re still out there alright, frolicking in the waters off Madison Park’s northern shore, blithely unaware that the City is rapidly moving towards a decision on whether to allow dredging within just a few yards of their snugly lodge located near the dock at the foot of 37th Avenue E. The Seattle Department of Planning & Development (DPD) reports that they expect to have a decision within two weeks on Broadmoor’s request to dredge the general area.

As we reported last month, the managers of the golf course say they need a less-obstructed water intake system for hydrating the grass during the summer months. Neighbors in the area of the beaver lodge worry about collateral damage to the beavers and other wildlife as a result of the proposed dredging. In particular, there was concern that the dredging operation would damage or destroy several suspected beaver tunnels that were thought to run underwater into the beaver lodge from the land near the dock (one of the tunnel entrances is shown below).

However, neighborhood activist Liz Brandzel notes that she has been told this by the DPD: "Biologists confirmed that beavers do not build tunnels from their lodge or from their dam to the shoreline. The dredging therefore would not affect the beavers in this way." The tunnels may, therefore, be the handiwork (or rather, the paw-work) of a different kind of rodent.

In any event, the public comment period on Broadmoor’s permit request has now ended, so the next opportunity for the public to be involved will occur when and if a dredging permit is granted. DPD spokesperson Bryan Stevens tells me that a permit approval would be appealable for a period of two weeks. We’ve requested a copy of the permit decision when it’s issued and will be report what we know when we know it.

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[Photo of beaver lodge by Dave Hutchins. Photo of beavers at play by Jana Wilkins. Photo of mystery tunnel by Bryan Tagas.]

December Real Estate Report

Steady as she goes

The year ended on a pretty positive note for the real estate market here in the Park. Sales were steady, inventory was down, and there’s good reason to hope that even if things are not improving quickly, at least they don’t seem to be getting worse.

In line with the activity level that began in the early fall, there were eight houses sold in Madison Park during December, as well as two condos. Not bad for the holiday season. Among the sales was the spectacular $12.8 million waterfront mansion in the Reed Estate (shown below) that I profiled during the summer (“A glimpse beyond the gates”). After over a year on the market, the house changed hands at $10.6 million, a discount of 17% from the list price. A local real estate blog reports this as the second-highest -priced home sold in Seattle in 2009, based on data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Confirming the rarefied atmosphere of the market here in the Park, there was only one house sold in December at under $1 million; and the New Year begins with only four such houses listed for sale. December also saw the sale of two homes built by speculative builders (i.e. spec houses). But this still leaves, by my count, nine other spec houses on the market as of mid-January, with another two nearing completion. These represent 14% of the total homes listed for sale here—28% of the houses on the market outside of Broadmoor, which does not allow speculative building.

There is one spec home currently listed as a short sale by the MLS. A short sale is a situation where the sales price is (or, in the case of a listed-but-unsold house, is expected to be) less than the amount owing on the underlying mortgage. The particular spec house that has now become a short sale is located at 628 32nd Avenue E. (shown below). It was built in 2008, is listed at $1.65 million, and has been on the market for over 600 days.

As I noted in an earlier posting, it’s a tough market for spec builders—and there’s a limit to how long most can afford to wait before unloading their houses. Usually a short sale occurs when the property is turned over to the bank that financed the project. I am aware of only one other short sale in Madison Park during the past year, a Broadmoor home that is currently listed as pending sale. A short sale is always a sacrifice for both the owner (who gives up all equity) and the mortgage holder (who receives less than the amount financed).

Inventory shrinks

We begin the New Year with an inventory of only 64 homes listed for sale, including 18 residential condominiums. The for-sale properties are certainly not scattered uniformly about the Park, however, especially the houses:

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So, while Broadmoor represents less than 20% of the total housing units in Madison Park, listed houses in that enclave constitute 50% of the Park’s for-sale inventory. This was the general pattern throughout 2009, but it has accelerated as the cheaper housing inventory outside of Broadmoor was gradually sold but not replaced with new listings during the year. There have been only three new house listings in our market during the last 30 days, and two of these were in Broadmoor (one was in Washington Park). And there were only two new condo listings during the period.

Here’s how the Madison Park market (Washington Park and Broadmoor included) looks in January, as reported by Redfin:

Houses

Listings: 46
Median List Price: $ 1,995,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 4800
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $415.63
Percentage with Price Reduction: 39%
Average Days on Market: 154

Condos

Listings: 18
Median List Price: $550,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 1,125
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $488.89
Percentage with Price Reduction: 44%
Average Days on Market: 218

There’s a significant difference between the houses that sold in December and those that remain on the market, both in terms of price:

and in terms of size:

Houses sold in December were on average 35% smaller and 23% less expensive than those still on the market in January. There are currently four houses listed as pending, and these houses have a median list of price of about $1 million and median square footage of about 3,000.

The most expensive house currently on the market is the $10,995,000 Normandy-style home shown in the photo at the top of this posting. Built in 1931 and extensively reconstructed in 2005, it sits on a half acre of prime Broadmoor real estate and boasts four bedrooms and seven and a quarter baths (listing by Betsy Terry of Ewing & Clark). The least expensive listed house, at $599,950, is a 2,400 sq. ft. 1925 Spanish stucco located on the south side of E. Madison Street, but with a view of Lake Washington.

As an aside, I see that at least two houses are “for sale by owner” in Madison Park, listed on Zillow at $2.2 million and $1.5 million respectively. It’s unusual for homeowners in the upper market to try this gambit, so I’ll be watching to see their success (or otherwise) in marketing their homes without an agent involved. It’s not the kind of thing real estate professionals advise, of course (the doing it, I mean, not the watching it).

Up next month: an overview of how the Madison Park real estate market fared in 2009 compared to previous years.

[Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Real Estate/Capitol Hill for her help in providing market data used in this report. Upper and bottom photos courtesy of Redfin.]

Do Broadmoor’s dredging plans pose a threat to Lake Washington wildlife?

I'm sure it comes as a surprise to many of us that Broadmoor Golf Club keeps its course green and lush during the summer with the help of water pumped from Lake Washington. Under grandfathered water rights which probably date back many decades, the Club gets Lake water from an intake pipe located at the foot of the 37th Avenue E. road end in the Canterbury section of Madison Park, just to the east of Broadmoor’s Union Bay shoreline (marked in red below):

Attention is now being focused on Broadmoor’s water-intake system as a result of the Golf Club’s request for a permit to dredge the Lake around the intake pipe. The purpose of the proposed dredging is to improve water flow to the golf course’s pump house. Some Canterbury residents are disturbed by the possibility that the habitat of wildlife in the area, particularly a small population of beavers and otters, may be negatively impacted by the dredging. They are seeking to, at minimum, delay permit approval in order to allow more study of Broadmoor’s plans.

A leader of the locals is Gene Brandzel, a Canterbury Shores resident and attorney who says that the “Biological Evaluation for Sensitive Fish and Wildlife Species” that Broadmoor submitted as part of its dredging application is inadequate. The study, which was prepared for Broadmoor by The Watershed Company, “doesn’t deal with any of the wildlife issues at the inlet,“ he says, “other than those related to salmon and certain other fish.”

Brandzel is upset that Watershed’s report “says nothing about the beavers other than to state there’s a beaver lodge in the area but that no beavers were observed.” The reason no beavers were observed, he notes, is that the report writers visited the site during the day. Beavers are only observable in the area at dawn and dusk, he says.

As proof that there is a lot of beaver activity, Madison Park resident Jana Wilkins visited the area on Sunday and provided these pictures of beavers frolicking during the early morning hours:

In this shot, looking north to the SR-520 Bridge, three beavers are visible (click to enlarge):

Brandzel, who visits the road end frequently, says that Broadmoor has not addressed most of the wildlife issues in its report. “What we want is a complete biological study of the wildlife--including the beavers, otters, herons, eagles, turtles, ducks and geese, and red-winged blackbirds--that inhabit the area where the dredging would be done.” Secondly, he notes, “we need time to work with Broadmoor to see if there‘s a way to give them the water supply they need without disruption to the natural habitat.” He notes that there are alternative water-pumping systems to the one Broadmoor currently employs which might be less costly, more effective, and not as potentially detrimental as dredging would be to the environment of the inlet. What the opponents have asked for, he says, is for the permit process to be delayed for 90 days in order to see if both objectives can be achieved during that period.

On my own visit to the site with Brandzel and his wife, Liz, we observed a heron standing in or near the area of the proposed dredge. And to the right of the dock at the road end there appeared to be several tunnels, which the Brandzels say are used by the beavers to access their lodge (beaver dam) which sits less than 100 feet to the north. It seems apparent that the beaver tunnels extend directly into the area that Broadmoor will be dredging. According to Brandzel, dredging--if approved--will occur within 15 feet of the beaver lodge (shown to the left in the photo below).

Alan Foltz, permit coordinator for Broadmoor’s dredging contractor, Waterfront Construction, tells me that regarding the beaver lodge “we are not going near it” during dredging. “It is not our intent to endanger the wildlife” in the area, he says. He adds that the beaver dam is an appropriate distance from the dredging operation. “We do dredging in a lot of areas of Lake Washington, and if the federal, state and local agencies all agree we are in compliance, then we're able to dredge. We never dredge unless we are in compliance.” He notes that Waterfront Construction has been in business for a good 30 years and in its history has always been very conscious of the environment. "Almost all of our work involves environmental enhancements," he notes.

According to Foltz, his company’s experience with beavers is that during the dredging period they tend to scatter but then return to the area as soon as dredging is completed. He acknowledges that Waterfront Construction is looking at ways to minimize the impact of the dredging on the area’s beaver population: "Mitigation is definitely under consideration.”

Under Broadmoor’s permit request, planned dredging would remove up to 1,000 cubic yards of silt and sediment in a 20-foot radius from the water intake pipe, which is housed in a wooden structure near the road-end dock. The dredging would also remove “invasive” plant species growing within the proposed dredge zone. The project is expected to be completed in a two to three week period and will be accomplished through the use of a barge-based crane and clam-shell dredge.

The last dredging which occurred in the area was reportedly in 1974, and the intent of this year’s dredging would be to return the water intake system to its 1974 level of “operational integrity and efficiency.”

Foltz notes that multiple permits are required for the project, some of which have been approved and some of which are still in process. The City of Seattle’s approval process is still underway, and the public-comment period has been extended until January 14, this Thursday. Anyone who would like to give their input is encouraged to do so by faxing their comments to project planner Craig Flamme at the City’s Department of Planning and Development: (206) 233-7901. He can also be emailed (craig.flamme@seattle.gov).

The Madison Park Community Council (MPCC) considered the Broadmoor water intake issue at its monthly meeting this month, informally agreeing to support efforts to find a solution to Broadmoor’s needs other than dredging. MPCC President Ken Myrabo says “it’s a very sensitive wetlands area and we’d like to work with them to find other options.” He notes that former MPCC board member Maurice Cooper, who is a Broadmoor resident, has been asked by Council members to meet with both sides and see if there’s a possible compromise. "I applaud what they’re doing,” he added.

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More to follow.

[Upper photo courtesy of Broadmoor Golf Club. Aerial photo by the US Geological Survey. All other photos by Jana Wilkins. ]

November Real Estate Report

Madison Park goes posh

At mid-December there were exactly two houses for sale in Madison Park listed at under $1 million. And with the median price of condos having risen to $600,000, affordable is definitely not a good characterization of the current real estate scene here in the Park.

It isn’t that there aren’t still a lot of Madison Park houses that are worth less than $1 million. It’s just that the market has absorbed almost all homes that had been for sale in that price range. Meanwhile, many of the higher-priced residences are still awaiting buyers. “Maybe we’re just out of the relatively inexpensive houses,” says Dave Hale, Managing Broker for Windermere Real Estate in Madison Park. “I think our office’s average listing price is now somewhere in the $2 million range.”

What we had in the early part of 2008 was a market with very little movement. Now what we apparently have is a market where houses at the lower end are being snapped up fairly quickly, but the upper market has yet to fully recover. The average number of days on the market for under $1 million houses during the last three months was 79, while the average for the over $1 million houses was 145, based on listing information from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Nevertheless, sales were surprisingly brisk last month in the upper market. Of seven houses sold during November in Madison Park (Broadmoor and Washington Park included), five changed hands at over $1 million. Here are the statistics (which include two houses not listed by MLS but recorded as sold by the King County Assessor’s Office):

Houses

Average Sales Price: $1,433,000
Median Sales Price: $1,295,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 2,952
Average Cost per Sq. Ft: $485
Average Days on Market for Listed Homes: 267
Average Discount from Original List Price: 16%

(Note that the discount average is skewed by the famous example, which I discussed in an earlier posting, of the Washington Park home which sold for a 52% discount from its initial asking price. Without that outlier, the average discount accepted by house sellers in November was just 7%.)

[Pictured above is the least expensive house on the market as of December 15, a three-bedroom 1927 stucco home located at 2324 41st Avenue E. Priced at $649,000, it is a listing of Michael Roland of Skyline Properties.]

There were also three condo sales in Madison Park during November:

Condos

Average Sales Price: $593,667
Median Sales Price: $585,000
Average Sq. Ft.: 1,410
Average Cost per Sq. Ft.: $440
Average Days on Market: 223
Average Discount from Original list Price: 6.5%

With ten total residential real estate sales during the month, November continued the trend of increasing market activity that began earlier in the fall. December, though mid-month, also showed surprising strength, with six sales recorded in the first two weeks. In addition, there were nine houses listed as pending sale or contingent. There were, however, only three new house listings and one new condo listing during the holiday season.

The impact of all these sales and the relative lack of new listings means that we enter 2010 with a pretty low level of inventory. Currently, there are only 70 active listings in Madison Park, which is a 10% decline from the October level and a 40% decline from the 116 listings that agents were working with at the beginning of the summer. We end the year with a seven-month absorption rate (10 sales to 70 listings).

So it’s both a rather limited market and an expensive one:

As Windermere’s Dave Hale notes, however, this is all just part of a long-term trend. “For the average person, it’s getting very tough to find a home here,” he says. So-called ‘starter’ homes which once may have cost $800,000 in the Park have declined to something like $650,000, he notes, but there aren’t very many of them available. And with declining inventory and renewed buyer interest, we may even be returning to price appreciation in 2010. “It’s been a tough year,” Hale admits, “but we start fresh in January. So we’ll just have to see what the New Year brings.”

Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Realty for her help in providing some of the market data utilized in this report. Additional listing information was obtained from Redfin.

October Real Estate Report

Sellers ‘capitulate’ to the market

During my ramblings around Madison Park last month I happened to cross paths with a well-known local real estate agent who was standing in front of a house—one of his listings—where a “sold” sign had recently been posted. He was watching the movers cart out the last vestiges of the “staged” furniture that had been on display in the home during its many months on the market. My congratulations on the sale were met with a weary sigh. “Well,” the agent said, “the seller lost a bundle and I lost a bundle, but at least we got the thing sold!” Then he added wryly, “It sure was a heck of a deal for the buyer, though.”

The seller had been “testing” the market over a long period by holding out for a higher price. But he ultimately succumbed to market realities, accepting a much reduced sale price. In a phrase borrowed from the stock market, he finally reached his personal capitulation point. And he was not alone. With only one notable exception, every Madison Park seller in October accepted a discount from their originally-hoped-for selling price, 12.5% on average. Even so, it appears that the market is achieving equilibrium and maybe even a bit of momentum.

Eight home sales were recorded in the Park during October, which was down from September’s volume of 11 sales but is level with the average eight-sales-per month pace of the market during the third quarter. There were also a large number of new pendings added during October and the first two weeks of November, bringing the total pendings at mid-month to 23, including three homes sold on a “contingent” basis. This is a huge increase from the 12 pendings outstanding a month earlier.

All but one of the six houses sold during October were in the $1 million or more price range, with a median sale price of $1,272,500 for all the houses. Their median square footage was 3,497, reflecting a median price per square foot of $454. The two condos (each boasting less than 600 sq. ft.) changed hands at about $300,000 each, for a median price per square foot of $524. While the houses sold in only 90 days on average, the condos took over twice as long to sell: 188 days each.

This combination of sales activity and the fact that there were only ten new homes listed for sale during the last month has caused inventory levels to continue their steady decline. The total number of homes on the market in Madison Park is now only 78, which compares favorably to the 116 active listings we had at the beginning of the summer (for those who are number oriented, that’s a 33% decline). Where there was a 17-month absorption rate (total listings divided by the month’s sales) in May, now there’s only 9.75 months of inventory, a pretty substantial improvement.

In addition to the two condos sold in October, there are nine additional condos that are now listed as pending, including two of the three units in this 2007 building at 1611 43rd Avenue E. These condos have been on the market for almost 700 days, according to Redfin; and it's expected that the developer will be taking a bath on the sale of the units, so to speak:

Here are the numbers for the Madison Park market (Broadmoor and Washington Park included) as of mid-November (courtesy of Redfin):

Houses

Listings: 53
Median List Price: $1,995,000
Median Sq. Ft.: 4,372
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $456
Average Days on Market: 129
Proportion with Price Reductions: 45%

Condos & Townhouses

Listings: 25
Median List Price: $599,950
Median Sq. Ft.: 1,125
Median Price per Sq. Ft.: $533
Average Days on Market: 185
Proportion with Price Reductions: 56%

Interestingly, the proportion of for-sale properties that have been reduced in price is trending upwards, perhaps another sign of the capitulation process at work. As any viewer of cable TV’s Million Dollar Listing (Bravo channel, Mondays at 10:00) will tell you, sellers in even pricier neighborhoods than ours can be pretty unsophisticated about the market and resistant to facing the reality of declining real estate values. Many of them, of course, don’t have to sell and simply withdraw their properties or stick to their over-market price while awaiting a recovery that may or may not occur.

If you don’t have to sell, of course, there are more options available than for those who cannot afford to hold. But clearly it is possible with the right property to properly gauge the market and price accordingly. One Madison Park home, for example, was sold in October after only 9 days on the market—and at a 3% premium to the list price. It could be a fluke, or it might just be a good example of “pricing to the market.”

On the other hand, there is the example of that Washington Park house I mentioned in an earlier posting, the one whose owners had been “chasing the market down.” After almost 500 days on the market, the nicely located Hillside Drive home was finally sold early this month. Though the sale price of $1,350,000 was a 52% reduction from the initial offering price of $2,795,000, this was still a 35% increase in value from what the owners reportedly paid for the property in 1999. Not quite a hard-luck story, but a come down and a capitulation to the market nonetheless.

[Upper photo: a 2007 contemporary home at 1840 41st Avenue E., listed by Kathryn Hinds of Windermere at $1,795,000 (my favorite for-sale property in Madison Park). Thanks to Wendy Skerritt of Windermere Realty for her help in providing some of the market data utilized in this report.]

Defining Madison Park: an essay (part two)

Over the course of several decades the City of Seattle has, apparently through inattention and inertia, helped to perpetuate the myth that Washington Park (or at least the bulk of it) isn’t located in Madison Park, but rather exists as an enclave of a neighborhood called “Harrison Denny-Blaine”:

This myth has been accepted by map makers, news sources, national and local websites, and other unsuspecting seekers of Seattle-neighborhood information. The result of the City government’s imprecision is that Madison Park neighborhood is often shown in a truncated form when our community is discussed in the media. Here, for example, is the map of Madison Park used by the Seattle PI:

The City’s definition of Madison Park, which excludes Washington Park, is also used by news aggregating sites such as outside.in and EveryBlock, by real estate listing sites such as Redfin, Tulia and Zillow, and by internet shopping sites such as CitySearch . In a recent Google search I found no fewer than 20 websites that aggregate Seattle neighborhood information in such as way as to exclude Washington Park from Madison Park. And why? Because the City’s “unofficial” neighborhood map does so.

So how did the City come to believe that Madison Park stops at E. Lee Street and that the non-existent neighborhood of “Harrison Denny-Blaine” is the actual home of the Seattle Tennis Club and of those upscale Washington Park houses pictured above? I decided to find out.

In researching this topic over the past couple of months I discovered that the source of this geographical confusion is something called the Seattle City Clerk's Office Neighborhood Map Atlas. There, shown as one of the “Capitol Hill Neighborhoods” is Madison Park, minus most of Washington Park. And there, shown as one of the “Central District Neighborhoods” is Harrison Denny-Blaine, including most of Washington Park. To be fair, the map does display a disclaimer at the bottom stating that the map “is designed for subject indexing of legislation, photographs, and other documents in the City Clerk's Office and Seattle Municipal Archives. It provides a way to increase consistency in the way geographic names are used and to allow precise retrieval of documents concerning neighborhood districts. It is not designed or intended as an ‘official’ City of Seattle neighborhood map”

So here we have an “unofficial” Seattle neighborhood map that is, none the less, used as the guide for recording and retrieving City information about the neighborhoods, is publicly available on the City’s website as the Seattle neighborhood map, and is purported to be the means by which “consistency” is achieved in defining the geography of the City. Consistency, in this case, means that Madison Park is missing one of its vital components and is constrained to about two thirds of its actual size.

And the map, by the way, is not just used for filing purposes. I have discovered that various City departments, including Seattle Public Utilities, utilize the City Clerk’s map as the official source of neighborhood boundaries. Here, for example is the area map for the Adopt-A-Street program:

The question of why the map is so off base stumped the Seattle Department of Neighborhoods when I raised the issue this summer. The first person I talked to said she had never heard of “Harrison Denny-Blaine” as a neighborhood. But when I told her the location, she was surprised to find it on the neighborhood map displayed in her office. Disclaiming any other knowledge of the subject, she passed me along to a colleague, Ted Divina, District Coordinator for the Central Area, who was also at a loss to explain how Madison Park got so whacked on the City’s map.

He theorized that the concept of ”Harrison Denny-Blaine” may be an historical anomaly of some kind, since there apparently was once a Harrison Community Council in the area, he thought. He suggested that perhaps the Greater Madison Valley Community Council (GMVCC) is the successor to the Harrison council. But even so, what would explain the inclusion of Washington Park in the “Harrison” neighborhood? And whatever the “Harrison” council may have once claimed, the Madison Valley council certainly doesn’t pretend that its coverage area extends into Denny-Blaine or into Washington Park (or, at least not into the part of Washington Park that overlooks Lake Washington). Here’s the official GMVCC map (we’ll be coming back to it later):

So at this point in the investigation it appeared we were at a dead end, the seemingly inexplicable story of the phantom Harrison Denny-Blaine neighborhood having been permanently lost in the mists of time. After further futile research I was just about to give up on this mystery, but last week I decided to make one last call to Ted Devina in the Department of Neighborhoods to see if he had uncovered anything. He said he hadn’t, but he remembered that there still was someone working in the department who had been there back in the 1970’s and who might know the answer. He directed me to Steve Sheppard, a senior planner in the group; and Sheppard, it turns out, does remember why there’s a Harrison Denny-Blaine neighborhood on the map. It’s a story he describes as “not very convoluted.” But, really, it is.

According to Sheppard, the story actually begins back in the 1960’s, when a federal grant funded a major effort by Seattle city government to rank all of the neighborhoods on the basis of their need for physical improvements. The idea was to use the rankings as a way to determine eligibility for infrastructure funding through bond issues such as Forward Thrust. The starting point for this process, he says, was to ask “what are our Seattle neighborhoods?”

But this presented some difficulties. There wasn’t universal agreement on where neighborhoods began and ended, and the neighborhoods that did exist weren’t necessarily contiguous to each other (in other words, some parts of the city didn’t really fit into a particular neighborhood, leaving gaps on the map of neighborhoods). For every block of the City to be fairly represented in the funding process, the neighborhoods had to abut each other, meaning that the historical boundaries of some neighborhoods needed to be expanded. Additionally, each neighborhood had to have a fair chance to get funding; so the neighborhoods had to be of roughly uniform size. There was also a desire, Sheppard believes, for the neighborhoods to have a good demographic mix (in other words, poorer areas combined with richer ones).

In the case of our area, Madison Park (including Broadmoor) was already large enough and diverse enough, according to Sheppard, to constitute a neighborhood for purposes of the official map. To the south and west of Madison Park, however, there was only the Harrison neighborhood, covering part of what today is Madison Valley. Combining Harrison with Denny-Blaine (which had no community council) did not, apparently, create a big enough neighborhood to compete equally with the others. So apparently most of Washington Park was added to “Harrison Denny-Blaine” simply to get the critical mass necessary for the neighborhood to compete effectively for bond funds. “It was a strange bedfellows situation,” Sheppard says, “but it was necessary for the purpose of getting funding.“

And it worked. As Sheppard remembers it, the City recognized 113 Seattle neighborhoods on its official map, but only the twenty top neighborhoods were to receive Forward Thrust money for their projects. After each of the neighborhood infrastructure improvement proposals had been received, the City chose Harrison Denny-Blaine as the 20th and final neighborhood to be awarded funding. All of the money was used for projects in Madison Valley.

According to Sheppard the intention was to have the people living in the respective neighborhoods make the decisions on how to define their communities. As he recalls, both the Harrison and Madison Park community councils were involved in the decision making on drawing the lines for the City’s neighborhood map. However, the purpose of that map was admittedly a rather limited one related to Forward Thrust funding. Sheppard agrees that “it’s really within the purview of the people living an area to decide the boundaries of their community.” Meaning, presumably, that the City should not be perpetuating a map that is inconsistent with neighborhood definitions adopted by the respective community councils.

In this case, the Harrison Community Council no longer exists; and its successor, the Greater Madison Valley Community Council, as we have seen, does not claim either Denny-Blaine or most of Washington Park as within its “jurisdiction.” The Madison Park Community Council, meanwhile, has apparently always included Washington Park within its coverage area. In fact, the official Madison Park map taken from the MPCC’s by-laws also includes Denny-Blaine. This map has the additional virtue of being consistent with what the City of Seattle’s Office of Economic Development says are the boundaries for the “Madison Park Business District”:

Just to cover all the bases, I checked with Cynthia Stross, President of the Madrona Community Council, to see what Madrona’s view on the matter might be. Her definitive response: “Denny-Blaine is not part of Madrona.”

So there you have it. All of the communities involved agree that there is no Harrison Denny-Blaine neighborhood, and no one claims to represent either Denny-Blaine or Washington Park other than the Madison Park Community Council. Yet the City persists in “unofficially” believing there is a Harrison Denny-Blaine neighborhood and that Madison Park exists almost entirely north of E. Madison Street. All because of some bond issue of 40 years ago. Somewhere in the denizens of City Hall someone is probably right now filing a memo about Washington Park in a file labeled “Harrison Denny-Blaine.”

But at least we know the truth.

We’re almost done exploring the definition of Madison Park, but not quite. To this point we have determined that Madison Park definitely includes the enclaves of Broadmoor and Washington Park. And we’ve also defined the boundaries of the Park, hopefully to the satisfaction of most readers. What remains to be investigated is where Washington Park begins and ends. In our third (and final) installment in this series we will therefore ask the question “Do the residents of Washington Park Tower actually live in Washington Park?”

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We may even provide an answer.


[The photo shows the Washington Park shoreline looking north from the vantage point of Lakeview Park at the intersection of E. Lake Washington Boulevard and Hillside Drive E., on the border between Washington Park and Denny-Blaine.]